Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
